Yes, Jack, only 52% of Clinton supporters are currently going to vote for Obama, which if it stays that way come November 4th he is not going to win. Most of the reports coming out of the US are not showing well for Obama. I've said all along that if the Democrats wanted the next President then they had to go for Clinton. She's got a much broader appeal. The problem for America is that no matter who they stick in the White House the prognosis isn't good for the average Joe. Bush has already spent too much money, the incoming is going to spend even more and that means that taxes will rise. It's no more fun over there than it is here right now, and with the dollar strengthening it is going to be even harder for them.

52% is pretty high, if you ask me. Another 20% undecided. Obviously one of the reasons Biden was chosen.

Jack, you are changing your tune. Not so long ago you didn't believe that Democrats would vote for Republicans! So they will vote for John McCain instead. I don't think so. The survey shows very clearly that 21% have already decided to vote for McCain and that in itself will be enough to hand the presidency to McCain. The remaining 27% are likely to split down the middle and leave him a very long way short.

Not changing my tune at all. Over 70% won't vote Republican (at present).

Yes you are! Your statement was clear, you did not believe that Democrats would vote for McCain. It is perfectly clear that half of Clinton's supporters, at present will not be voting for Obama. You went out on a limb and it broke off - stop trying to get off your own hook! Even if all of the undecideds vote for Obama, which is highly unlikely, it will be enough to sink him. Clinton polled half of the Democrat vote, which means that 10% of the electorate will swing to the Republicans - AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW - and Obama cannot win with that degree of opposition. Biden will not make up for the loss of Clinton's supporters.

When is election day again?

There may be some light on the horizon from Hillary: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/27/us/politics/27dems.html But it could still go badly for Obama if the anger stays in the system. She has her eye on 2012 and for that to happen he has to fail this time...

You are changing your tune, Tony!!

Don't be stupid Jack. All I have done is to provide a link to a story. There is more than enough animosity to ensure that thousands of Democrats don't vote for Obama, in spite of Clinton's speech last night. It is also notable that Bill Clinton has not endorsed Obama yet. That will change when he makes his speech to the convention, but there are ways of making that endorsement without making an endorsement. I also pointed out that Hillary has her eye on 2012 and for that to happen Obama would have to fail in this election or he would simply stand for re-election and there would be no con-*test*-('") next time. It is therefore in her interests for him NOT to succeed, but at the same time she cannot be seen to be sticking the knife into him. If he fails this time she will be a shoe-in for the nomination next time.

Yes, of course, but would Obama's supporters, particularly amongst the blacks, forgive anything less than a ringing endorsement this time, even if Obama does fail?

It's irrelevant. If he fails, he fails, it won't be down to Clinton. She's as committed to racial equality as he is, they would vote for her if he's not in the frame. His big disadvantage is that he's the new kid on the block, her advantage is that she has a long history of fighting for the rights of the working class - and that includes a large proportion of blacks and Hispanics. She could carry the election, whether he will make it we will have to wait and see.

It's not irrelevant. Both the Clintons are putting their weight behind Obama (for obvious reasons!)

I'm surprised to see today's CNN National Poll of Polls giving Obama a 46% lead over McCain's 42% because I still can't imagine Obama being able to win. Do people really believe that he would be better placed to provide strong leadership throughout the financial and geo-political storm that will continue to batter the USA for some time to come?

Only someone like Pat Buchanan could do that and (as far as I know) he isn't running.

People stating on an opinion poll that they will vote for candidate X: and actually voting for Candidate X are two different animals. When it comes to November, I suspect that many staunch Dems will either vote Republican or simply abstain. The final decision about placing that cross for a candidate perceived as a Black Man will prove a bridge too far. McCain is simply a sacrificial lamb: being set up to take the flack for the huge social and economic problems created by the two Dubya terms. In all probability, if a strong white male Dem stands in the following election, then he will be elected. Doubtful that Obama would be able to raise sufficient campaign financing for another go. Anymore than John Kerry could.