US Presidential Race - Part #1, the Primaries

I was in San Jose in 1984 working on a project: this was the time of the Reagan .v. Mondial race. Most interestingly, in our local bar, the night of the head-to-head on national networked TV, every person in the bar was glued to the programme right through! The lights were dimmed and all one could hear apart from the two guys debating was the soft clink of money as drinks were refreshed! Afterwards everyone was discussing both the prog and who they would vote for. What was most interesting to me was how even life-long Democrats were going to vote for Reagan, because they thought Mondial was a waste of space. It will be McCain for Pres.

What on earth makes you think she can't win? Have you been smoking something illegal? To win, 2024 delegate votes are needed, Obama has 1520, Clinton has 1424. I suggest that your simple maths is badly letting you down :lol:

What on earth makes you think she can't win? Have you been smoking something illegal? To win, 2024 delegate votes are needed, Obama has 1520, Clinton has 1424. I suggest that your simple maths is badly letting you down :lol: ...I'm not admitting anything and I certainly didn't inhale! Many media outlets are speculating about the maths - I think that the Telegraph ran a story about this a few days ago but I can't find it. This version comes from Newsweek magazine: Hillary’s Math Problem Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose. Mar 4, 2008 | Updated: 11:23 a.m. ET Mar 4, 2008 Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count. I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries. So here we go: Let's assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50. Then it's on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let's say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48. Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it's a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam's two delegates on May 30, and Indiana's proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates. Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months. So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 58-delegate lead. Let's say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn't helping me here.) So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal. For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead. The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now. Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

That's all very well, but other commentators are insisting that nothing will be decided until August at the convention where it all comes to a head. Most others are saying that it is a very long way from being over. All we can do is see how it plays out.

Another win for Obama, with another one on the cards on Tuesday. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7284881.stm

Are the wheels falling off the bus for Obama? http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/18/barackobama.uselections2008

Well someone thinks that Clinton can still win: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7287595.stm

Getting worse for Obama. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/22/uselections2008.barackobama

Clinton is dead in the water if she doesn't win the next primary election coming up on April 22nd. Some are arguing she is dead in the water anyway and this tussle between her and Obama is just making the campaign easier for McCain, the Republican nominee. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/13/hillaryclinton.barackobama

Some are arguing she is dead in the water anyway and this tussle between her and Obama is just making the campaign easier for McCain, the Republican nominee. And that statement is totally inaccurate. He is NOT the Republican nominee. Yet. Officially there are still two candidates standing, but the media and everyone else in positions of influence are pretending that Ron Paul doesn't exist. He is still there, he has not conceded, he has just been prevented from having a voice.

So, John McCain won't be the Republican candidate then?

I didn't say that. And neither did you in your first statement.

So he won't be the Republican nominee then?

I didn't say that. And neither did you in your first statement.

Remind me what I did say!

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